Friday, February 11, 2011

Conditions For A Top Satisfied

At this point all of the conditions for a top have been satisfied.  The upper trendlines of the wedge patterns have been overthrown.  The last movement from the 1/28 low has completed in 5 waves.  Today is a possible cycle turn date according to several different methods of calculation.  All that is needed is for a decline to begin.  A close below yesterday's low of 1311.74 would be the first indication that a correction is underway followed by confirmation with a close below the 1/28 low of 1275.10.  For the Qs the levels are 57.49 and 55.39, respectively.

Volume today has been on the light side, another indication of a lack of conviction.  In addition, we have not seen a serious decline since August, a period of almost 7 months, which is quite atypical.  The bottom line is that given all of the necessary conditions for a top have been met, if the market continues to rise, we have to conclude that something completely different is going on.  A correction will occur at some point, but the higher the level from which it occurs, the less likely serious damage will be done as the longer term 50 day and 200 day EMAs will approach and move above the 2010 highs, solidifying support at those levels.

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