Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Breakout Failure But Oil Still In Uptrend

While oil's recent breakout can be deemed a short term failure, it is still holding support above the February 2008 low of 86.25, which was resistance in April 2010.  As long as that level holds, the uptrend should continue to at least the lower target zones.  The trendline for the rally from 2009 is currently around 82, so that would be the lowest legitimate area of support for the uptrend.

The SP500 closed right at the trendline connecting the August and November 2010 highs today.  It is rare for a market to power through such a long established trendline.  The price pattern still looks like it wants to make another high, but that should be it.

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