Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Still Bullish Or Bearish?

Either the SP500 is working on a double zigzag correction on the 5 minute chart that will lead to higher prices, or it is subdividing into the first detectable impulse wave down since early November.  We should know by the end of the week and maybe as soon as tomorrow.

On a side note, the NFIB small business confidence survey ticked down for the first time in 4 months.  To me the most interesting thing about the survey is the fact that at the current level it has just retraced back to the level that it was at the bottom of the 1991 recession.  Anyone who has or is involved with a small business knows this is a pretty accurate picture of the small business climate.  While the hosts and guests on CNBC this morning dismissed the survey as being out of touch with the "clearly" improving economic conditions, I think they are missing the point.  Big business may be doing well for the moment because it has access to huge reserves of cash, government support and international sales.  Small business has been left to fend for itself and reflects the other half of the economy that is struggling.  It is the small business climate that truly reflects the state of the average american right now in my opinion.

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