Monday, January 3, 2011

Do The Bears Have A Chance?

I must admit that as hard as it is to conceive, I still believe that the current rally is a B wave.  That is just my opinion, and I know many disagree.  But there is a lot of work to do if the bears are going to have a chance in wave C down, whether it is a retest of the July low or just a 62% retracement of wave B.  Forgetting elliott wave for a moment, the two most important things that are needed to confirm a change in trend are:  1) the break of a trendline, and 2) a swing move greater than the largest counterswing in the current trend (Gann's method).  The third and final thing needed to confirm a change in trend is the break of the swing low created by the secondary reaction after the initial decline.

In this case, the decline in August was 89.54 points.  To be certain, we need to see a move below the last swing low, which is the November low of 1173 - a move of almost 100 points.  That would seem to be a tall order at the moment, but anything is possible.

No comments: