Thursday, December 23, 2010

VIX Approaching 3+ Year Low

For the fourth time since October 11, 2007 the VIX is approaching the 15 level.  Each time this occured it was accompanied by a selloff.  Will this time be different?  It's possible, but beware a false breakdown in the VIX that sucks in the last of the bulls.

I suspect we may see a new 3 year low in the VIX coinciding with a market top.  However, the subsequent rise in the VIX should be limited to the July 1 high of 37.58 which is the origin of the declining wedge pattern.  This should correspond with a wave  C or 2 low.

Any sustained break of the 15 level would indicate the SP500 is ready to run to its all time high now instead of later.

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