Thursday, December 2, 2010

A 22 Month High??

Markets are pushing toward new rally highs. The Russell 2000 and the Dow Transports are already there. These could very well be [b] waves of minor wave 4 of the rally since July 1. If so, it adds another layer of uncertainty to the big picture. We are coming up on the 22 month cycle turn date which is due in the time frame from December 20 to January 20 with a mid-point of January 6.

The problem is that instead of a cycle low, which has been my thesis since this summer, we could be looking at a cycle high. This might very well coincide with a completed wave (C) of [2] or [C] of x for the rally from March 2009. Unfortunately for the bulls, this would mean a long and significant decline is very near upon us.

The alternative is that the 5 wave advance from the July low is just wave 1 of (C) or (1) of [C]. In this case, a multi-week pullback in wave 2 or (2) should follow a top in December.

At the moment the wave [B] flat correction or triangle interpretation is still on the table so there is no reason to jump to conclusions just yet, and there are quite a few indications that a top is imminent which could still derail the wave 4 view: 1) the Absolute Breadth index is making a double bottom with its November 1 low suggesting a big top is near, 2) the Summation Index is still falling with a negative MACD, 3) Volume on the latest short term rally has been anemic, and 4) the JNK is not rallying with stocks suggesting that the appetite for risk is falling.

I think we will definitely see some kind of top tomorrow or early next week that may last into December 21. Whether it is just a part of wave 4 will not be known until then.

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