Saturday, November 27, 2010

JNK Shows Falling Appetite For Risk

The appetite for risk as measured by demand for high-yield corporate bonds is falling, and not just falling, but falling out of a rising wedge pattern that targets the May lows. The JNK has fallen below its January high. The February low and the May low occured close to the 1.0 and 1.618 extensions of the January range. The May low coincided with the June 2009 high. The top in JNK was on 11/4. The typical length of the retracement of a rising wedge pattern is 1/3 the length of the pattern. In this case, it works out to 39 trading days, which targets a bottom on December 31. It could occur sooner or later, but the lower target range is a high probability target.

Notice how the JNK closed near it November low. This suggests that any continuation of the short term rally in stocks next week will fail, and probably in a sharp fashion to play catch up. Also, the pattern in the JNK fits with the expanded flat or triangle thesis that we have been discussing. The more violent the coming decline, the more likely it is that we will see the expanded flat correction as opposed to the triangle, or it may be that markets are mixed with the Qs in a triangle while other indexes complete the expanded flat.

In any case, the downward pull of the 10 month and 20 month cycle that is currently in force should bring a conclusion to the correction that began April 26. All in all, it appears that this will not be a typical December for a mid-term election year as the market may be down for almost the entire month.

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