Tuesday, November 16, 2010

IWM Breaks Trendline

In my opinion, we are probably at least a month away from a correction low. The IWM has already fallen over 5% from its high and support at the July high is only 6% away. The force of the trendline breakdown today was significant and greater downside action should be expected, so unless the market finds a footing soon, the 4th wave scenario that many are proposing could be invalidated within a week.

Today's range and close were very similar to May 4th, right before the "Flash Crash" episode. Another such event, or least a dramatic selloff, could be setting up. The only difference being that the market has become more oversold than it was on May 4th and a bounce may be coming first.

A valid MACD negative divergence sell signal was given on the IWM and the IWM can be shorted. Entry on a bounce would be advisable. Today's distribution day should push IBD to call the Market In Correction. If so, that would be another reason to look for a short entry. That said, we have to respect the support at the July high (August high in other indexes), so a staged entry would also be advisable, i.e. 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 positions depending on your account size.

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