Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Bearish Triangle In The SP500

The intraday pattern in the SP500 appears to be developing as a bearish descending triangle. The key to maintaining the formation is completion of waves (c), (d) and (e) over rest of this week without violating yesterday's low of 1173.64 or the 11/16 low of 1173. Wave (b) probably completed yesterday at 1173.64. Waves (c), (d) and (e) should be complete by Friday or Monday at the latest.

If the triangle does complete as suggested, the only question will be whether it completes above or below the August high. The former will allow for the 4th wave interpretation to remain on the table while the latter will leave us with the more likely outcome that we are currently in the middle of a much larger triangle for wave [B] of x for the overall cyclical bull market. I suspect that we will see the latter outcome, but we won't know for sure for at least 3 more weeks.

The other valuable piece of information from this triangle is that it will invalidate the possibility of a flat/expanded flat correction. However, we will still have to be on guard for the development of a double zigzag for wave (C) down which is now underway that could extend well into January.


Anonymous said...

Hi Craig,

As im writing this, the Euro is at 1.2988..

My opinion is that the Euro bottoms out around 1.2953.

I believe the GBP has already bottomed.

My bias for the SnP is higher should the Euro reverse at the said level, and the GBP to further break out over 1.56.

Crude Oil very strong, and is giving the 'Risk on' signal.

Gold also very strong, suggesting $ to weaken.. A clean break over 1392 could see a short squeeze.

Im expecting a strong December basically.

Just some thoughts.

Thanks for maintaining the blog, enjoy reading it very much.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the comments Sam. I agree that the Euro is oversold and due for a bounce which will support the US stock market. Your views are certainly reasonable. My primary concern is that I suspect that yours is the consensus view, and while it may very well prove to be correct, I usually am looking to be on the opposite side of the consensus. I think we will know very soon which way it will go.