Saturday, October 30, 2010

Pop & Drop Or Just Drop

The buildup to the election on Tuesday and the Fed meeting on Wednesday has been exceptional. It is rare that the market reaction to such huge expectations is positive regardless of the outcome because the expectations are typically priced in, and it becomes a sell-on-the-news event. One thing that I agree on with Robert Prechter is that news does not affect the longer term trend, rather it is a representation of the same effects that can be seen in market behavior. That is not to say that there aren't brief reactions to the news, but these do not affect the big picture. So, whether the market pushes higher after the election and Fed meeting or not, the market looks ready to sell off.

Looking at the pattern in the IWM, it looks like it could go either way. The IWM either topped on Monday or it will rally into Tuesday or Wednesday and then roll over. If the top is in, however, the selling should begin fairly quickly on Monday. One thing is clear, the action since mid-September in the IWM is not impulsive. It doesn't look anything like an impulse wave, so once the selling begins, the gains should be given back quickly.

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