Wednesday, October 6, 2010

October's 5 Day Opening Range

The range of the first 5 trading days of each month establishes the month's potential price range as breakouts from the 5DOR tend to move from 0.618 to 1.618 times the 5DOR. For example, in September the 5DOR was 44.07 to 46.45 = 2.38. The rest of the month was 46.45 to 49.84 = 3.39. 3.39/2.38 = 1.42 ~ 1.38.

So far, the range for October is 1.56. 1.56 x 1.618 = 2.52, which gives us upside and downside targets for October of 52.28 and 45.68. Trading the 5DOR is not easy as there are frequent failed breakouts, but it is rare that moves will exceed 1.618 x the 5DOR. Should the Qs break below 48.20, the rest of October should be down. An upside breakout would likely produce a new 52 week high.

It is interesting to note that the entire rally from the May low has occured within May's 5DOR demonstrating the importance of this period when funds and institutions are putting money to work ( or are trying to protect it ).

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