Friday, October 22, 2010

More Rally To Come - But Closer To A Top

The declining tops in the NYSE McClellan Oscillator point to an impending top. All of the significant tops since the rally began in March 2009 have been preceded by the declining tops pattern. This doesn't mean that the market has to decline substantially. A short term correction or sideways consolidation could bring the Oscillator to an oversold condition.

That said, we have a very clear ascending triangle on the 30 minute chart of the Qs. This is most likely a 4th wave triangle of minute or minuette degree. The probability of a upside resolution is almost guaranteed as the Qs are already trading above the triangle highs afterhours tonight, and it is rare to see a failure of this type of triangle. The triangle target range is 52.39 to 53.31 which should conclude the rally by Wednesday at the latest.

The XLF is still lagging the overall market, which should not be if this rally were for real, and the IWM may have already topped. One of the biggest "tells" is the complete lack of confirmation by On Balance Volume of the breakout in the Qs. One of the reasons that the wave count has been difficult is that (i) of [c] of X appears to be an extended wave, which is not typical for the stock market, but as long as wave (v) is shorter than wave (iii), this count will remain valid.

Until we see a 5 wave count of minor degree, I think the expanded flat correction interpretation has to remain the top count. If we do not see an impulsive move down by mid-November, then we will have to reconsider this count.

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