Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Market Holds On

The Qs are approaching resistance at the upper trendline of the triangle. In order for the triangle pattern to be valid, we really must see a strong selloff that at least approaches the August low by September 21, the Autumnal Equinox. If the markets just trade sideways to down over the next two weeks, then the double zigzag upward correction will become the favored view.

Unfortunately, should the double zigzag play out it will still not remove the uncertainty because as much as I like drawing that red line down to new correction lows, a double zigzag could simply be completing wave B of a much larger triangle. Ugggh!

From a cyclical point of view, the low of the correction is not likely to be much later than October 26, so if we do not see new correction lows by then, we should lean toward more bullish interpretations.

At least we know the longer this thing drags on the more likely a strong bullish outcome will be. But as a reminder, my overall view that we will see another powerful upleg in this cyclical bull market is one reason I have maintained several longer term stock positions. Drawdowns can be brutal, but for the most part these longer term positions have held up well. QCOR is one example that continues to show positive upside potential.

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