Monday, September 13, 2010

The Market Has Spoken

The Qs have exceeded the August 9 high and even though several other major indexes have not, we can be fairly sure at this point that the pattern from the July 1 low is a double zigzag upward correction that appears to need one more down up swing to complete. This swing should move well into October before finishing, but need not do so.

Unfortunately for market technicians all of the easy solutions have been invalidated. We could now be at the mercy of the markets for weeks and months to come before a new uptrend or downtrend materializes. While not likely, the current pattern could play out as a flat correction, expanded flat correction, triangle, or a combination double zigzag. The triangle would be the worst outcome for traders to endure, in my opinion.

For those who have had the ability and the foresight to trade this rangebound market (not me, I admit), the swings have been remarkable. For those who have stuck with trend following methods (yeah, that's me, unfortunately), it has been horrible. At this point, I am inclined to trade the swings with targets assuming weeks and months of a continuing trading range from this point forward until a more discernable pattern develops. One reason that I have traded with the expectation of a strong trend occuring sooner rather than later is the flash crash itself. Usually, after such an event, the market will either be washed out and resume its uptrend, or another selloff matching the initial one will occur after a brief rally attempt. It now appears that the market will work off the excessive bullish sentiment from the first leg of this cyclical bull market by trading sideways in a range.

I don't really like changing my style, but hopefully, the market will give us enough clues to let us know when a new trend is about to begin so that we can jump on board.

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