Tuesday, September 28, 2010

1-2-3 Top In McClellan Oscillator

The McClellan Oscillator is showing a 1-2-3 topping pattern that is often coincident or precedes market tops as breadth momentum fades against the trend. The 1-2-3 pattern works much better with bottoms. I did not give enough weight to the 1-2-3 bottom in August due to the fact that the Oscillator had not fallen to low levels seen at prior bottoms since 2008. Nevertheless, the pattern did portend the incredible September uptrend that has transpired.

Now we see the topping pattern has developed, and the longer it takes for the market to turn down, the greater the selling pressure will likely be. In April the Oscillator made a lower 1-2-3 top pattern as the market continued higher which preceded the "Flash Crash". I don't think we will see that here, but the likelihood that we are within a couple of days or even hours of the rally top is great.

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