Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Update On GOOG

The top chart of GOOG is from July 2 where I showed that it had bottomed in 5 waves. The bottom chart is the current picture and shows GOOG beginning wave C up. Based on a measured move in time and price, I expect wave C to terminate around 550 by next Friday or thereabouts.

GOOG has been one of the weaker Nasdaq 100 stocks. It didn't even make a new high in April with most other stocks. So, it wouldn't be surprising that it might rollover ahead of the rest of the market.

But when we see high profile stocks like GOOG and IBM hit their targets, it will be time to think about exiting other long positions as the top is probably not far away. I suspect AAPL will only be able to retest its June high as well. Until we some significant change in the character of the market, we have to believe the story these stocks are telling.

As a side note, the QLD trade that I entered on 7/16 at 54.50 on the first pullback off of the 7/1 low is now up 11.5%. I have an order to sell in at 65.50, but I am beginning to think it may not make it given the weak uptrend. I may be looking to sell into the next surge in the indexes or when the SP500 hits 1140 should either occur. Next week will be key in this regard.

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