Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Today's Rally Appears Corrective

It looks like we should see at least one more low in the current decline before any meaningful countertrend rally occurs. Today's rally looks like a 3 wave affair, which means it is probably countertrend. Further decline into the end of the week prior to an end of the month rally is the likely course. The 200dema and 50dema should contain any rallies going forward. However, the Qs should remain below 44.56 or a larger countertrend rally is underway.

IBD has finally called the "Market In Correction". I think they could have a couple of days sooner, but their argument was that leading stocks were holding up in spite of the decline. That doesn't appear to be the case now. We should not expect a meaningful follow-through day anytime soon. However, it may be worth waiting for a retracement to the 50dema before going short off of this signal.

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