Thursday, August 26, 2010

Summation Index Pointing To Lower Prices

The MACD of the NYSE Summation Index does a pretty good job of keeping traders on the right side of the market. Buy signals tend to be more coincident with bottoms, while sell signals can be early or just signify a consolidation period. Currently we are back on a sell signal. If past behavior is any guide, it appears that the market will be headed down for some time before a tradable bottom forms.

Today's action appears to have completed a small degree 4th wave. Barring a huge breakdown tomorrow on the GDP news, we should see a new low for the decline that began August 9 followed by a rally or consolidation lasting 1 to 3 days before an attempt is made on the July 1 low. So far rallies are occuring in 3 waves, which is bearish and we should expect downside surprises.

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