Thursday, August 19, 2010

SP500 Needs To Hold This Morning's Low

The SP500 has retraced to the 78.6% level at 1076 of the rally from the 8/16 low while the Qs have retraced to the 61.8% level. These levels need to hold in order for the market to sustain wave [y] up. If the SP500 violates 1070, then wave [x] down is still in force.

However, I don't think this is the case because the rally in the Qs is a clear 5 wave impulse which should mean that we will see at least one more attempt at a rally before the market would roll over completely.

Also, the 5th wave appeared to be an ending diagonal triangle which often leads to sharp reactions such as we are witnessing today.

I know that the news is bad, but this is nothing new. The news has been bad for some time. A positive reversal today with a close near or above the open would signify that wave iii up is underway in spite of the bad news.

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