Saturday, August 7, 2010

Rising Wedge Spells Trouble

The rising wedge pattern has become fairly obvious. It points to a weakening uptrend that is in danger of imminent reversal. This is not the time to hang around for a sell signal. By the time the sell signal comes, gains will become losses. This is not the time to be buying breakouts. They will likely fail. Better to be safe than sorry. Better to buy back in at higher prices than to take a big loss.

However, we need to know what would invalidate the wedge pattern. If the SP500 exceeds 1147.91, then we know that the ending diagonal is extending with one more down up sequence since the length of wave (v) of [c] would be too long. With the 61.8% retracement level at 1140, it is not likely to occur, but the ending diagonal could extend to as high as 1177 without invalidating the pattern. That final number can only be determined after the next swing high and swing low are generated. Unless volume and breadth begin to support the uptrend, I am hesitant to wait that long.

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