Friday, August 13, 2010

FXI Leading The SP500

The FXI and other asian indexes topped last November well ahead of the US markets. They had also bottomed in October 2008 ahead of the US markets. The lead time appears to be about 5 months. This suggest that the current rally has more to go and may top in early to mid September. I am leaning toward the first of September. The rally has been very labored and difficult to trade, a hallmark of countertrend moves. Yet, it is premature to call it over at the moment.

If the same relationship holds, we should see a bottom in the US markets around October 27. If my memory is correct, the average time for a bottom in the fall is October 26, so I wouldn't necessarily call this a coincidence.

The key to riding this monster will be to begin taking profits as markets make new wave B highs and raise cash in anticipation of the fall selloff. When the pattern is complete, begin taking partial short positions and complete the positions as sell signals are confirmed. This is what I will be doing for better or worse. The main point is even if this correction has beaten you up and you are down for the year, don't hang around for more punishment when there is so much evidence that we are not yet ready for a new major up leg in the cyclical bull market.


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