Friday, July 16, 2010

Market Geometry

From time to time I like to play around with the internal geometry of the market. Corrections often lend themselves to elliptical constructions that constrain the market's movements. By no means am I suggesting that the market has to stay within the ellipse, but as long as it continues to move along the upsloping green trendline, the path of least resistance will be to the upside. However, the Wilshire 5000 must hurdle the 11700 level at the horizontal green line, the major axis of the ellipse, in order for it to have a chance to reach the upper right quadrant of the ellipse.

The intersection of lines of resistance in mid-August suggests a more bearish possibility if the market moves below the upsloping green trendline and also remains below the lower channel line of the entire rally. These lines intersect with the green major axis in mid-August.

From this we can conclude that if we do not see a sustained move above 11700 in the Wilshire 5000 well before mid-August, the rally will likely fail from below that level, but if it can move above it before then, we could see the rally extend to approach the April top in early September. After that it could go either way.

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