Thursday, July 29, 2010

Flat Bands Suggest Big Move Coming

I still am not feeling well, but I thought the above chart was important to show tonight. Notice how the 12 period bollinger bands on the weekly chart of the Qs have gone tight and flat. This condition does not happen often and when it does it usually only lasts about 6 bars max. This would suggest that even if the rally continues into late August, the upside will be limited to around 48+/-. Frequently, a market in this condition will pop in one direction and then reverse sharply in the other direction. This is a highly probable outcome unless the rally accelerates now to relieve this condition.

Notice how the weekly MACD is trading sideways during this rally below the signal line - not a particularly bullish configuration - the opposite of Feb 2009. A late buy signal near the upper bands would suspect.

The RSI is at the midline and not moving up. Again this is indicative of a weak uptrend.

The various charts that I have presented over the last couple of weeks all seem to be saying the same thing. (Is this my personal bias?) The rally will likely continue into late August, and then a selloff will ensue. This is a profit taking market. I would not be taking new long trades much after the middle of next week due to the risk of an unexpected downside reversal.

On the positive side, the NYSE Summation Index moved above the critical +400 level this week. If it can sustain above +400, the rally should continue as expected for the time being.

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