What's Up? Futures Down

I made the statement that the probability of an up day was around 94% today based on historical seasonal trends. We could certainly have a selloff today, but perhaps a more likely scenario would be a morning low from 1065 to 1073 in the SP500 followed by a rising market the rest of the day. This would allow a fib retracement of last week's rally and a close above the open, so the negative futures may not be as bad as they first appear. We would like to see last week's lows hold near term though.