Monday, June 21, 2010

Reversal To Fill The Gap

Today's reversal off of the early morning high was not all that unexpected. The new high for the rally from the 6/8 low may be complete or may need one more high. I recently made a comment about an impulse from the 5/25 low which was a mistake. I meant the 6/8 low. There are a couple of ways to count the rally so far. My preference is to label the June 8 low for the Qs as wave [b] which makes it consistent with the Dow, SP500 and Russell 2000. This makes the current rally wave (i) of [c] up. I show a target at the upper parallel channel line. It is possible that the 5/25 low is wave [b] which would make the current rally wave (iii) of [c]. Either way I think we have further to go. The pattern in the Russell 2000 looks even clearer than the Qs as it sports an impulse off of the 6/8 low.

Now I know that many will see a 3 wave rally off of the 5/25 low, and that is certainly a possibility, but in the final equation it is price, pattern AND time, not just price and pattern. I just don't think there has been enough time to fully complete the current rally whatever form it takes, and a number of stocks have completed impulse waves from their recent lows which suggests higher prices to come. This may be a volatile week, but another leg up at least seems to be the likely course.

Patience. No need to jump ship yet.

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