Saturday, June 19, 2010

Long Term Pattern In Biogen

Whatever you think about the long term prospects for the stock market, not all sectors and stocks will be affected equally. I've been following Biogen (BIIB) for 3 years now, and I believe that it has just completed a significant long term pattern. The decade long pattern in BIIB is an almost perfect running triangle. It sports all of the main characteristics of a triangle - (5) alternating 3 wave movements, price contraction within symmetrical trendlines, wave (B) is the longest wave, and wave (E) has completed well before the trendlines have converged.

If this interpretation is correct, BIIB is about ready to launch on a 3 year run. The targets range from 93.98 to 123.61 to 171.60, but I suspect that 200 or higher would not be out of the question.

Alternate views are that BIIB is still in wave (D) up or that it is not in a triangle but an expanded flat correction that will lead very soon to a dramatic crash in the stock. I view the latter possibility as very unlikely given the fundamentals on the stock.

The FDA has just ruled that the benefits of its new drug for multiple sclerosis, Tysabri, outweigh the risk of a potential deadly side effect called PML, which has affected 55 people to date. A member of my family is on Tysabri, and I have seen the benefits of the drug first hand, which are dramatic compared to the previous drugs used to treat MS.

I am long this stock and will look to add to my position this year. For your own research compare the pattern in BIIB to that in AMGN. The biotech sector in general seems to be in a long term uptrend as the biotech index BTK appears to be entering a 3rd of a 3rd wave advance after breaking out above its 2008 highs. If so, biotech stocks may be heading higher over the next 1 to 3 years whether the broader stock market declines or not.

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