Thursday, June 24, 2010

Key Level For The Qs

The Qs are trading around a pivot that has developed since January. This is the level that market participants are saying is important for whatever reason. The January high was 46.64. The close of the flash crash day, May 6, was 46.57. The June 3 swing high was 46.77. This is telling us that the January high is THE important level for the Qs. Everything that has occured since January 19 in the Qs has been an oscillation about that critical level.

As long as the oscillations about the January high pivot remain balanced, the market will remain in a trading range. When we see a move appreciably exceed the previous deviation from the pivot, we will know that the trend is probably asserting itself in one direction or the other.

At the moment the swings are becoming tighter as the June 21 high was only 1.04 above the pivot. We would expect an approximately equal swing below to 45.60. Yesterday's low was 45.69, so if things remain balanced to up, we should be near a low for this swing. The average of the June 8 low and the June 21 high is 45.49. We do not want to see a sustained move below 45.49 to 45.60 if the summer rally is to continue in a meaningful way to the upside.

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