Friday, June 25, 2010

Bearish Sentiment Very High

One of the best measures of sentiment is the Trin also known as the Arms Index. Currently the 21dsma of the NYSE Trin is higher than at the 2002/2003 lows. I have seen some people interpretating the high Trin readings as bearish for the market just as they were doing at the 2002/2003 lows. I recall asking EWI a question about it at that time and they basically blew it off saying that the ew pattern was the most important consideration. They were wrong then and I believe they are wrong now. Until we see a true break of recent support, it is my opinion that the current high levels of bearish sentiment will provide a floor under the market. Even this morning there was an analyst on CNBCs website calling for a crash. How many called the crash leading up to and after 9/11? How many called the crash in 2002? And how many called the crash in 2008? Where were these guys then? Now they are everywhere.

According to a recent news article, humans generally only remember events from the past that confirm their present beliefs. Perhaps there were alot of people calling for crashes back then. I just don't remember it. They certainly are calling for one now.

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