Silver Has Topped

Yesterday, I said that gold and silver were probably near a turning point. Today, silver and the SLV closed decisively below their trendlines from the February low with a confirmed negative MACD sell signal. The pattern that has developed is a complex double zigzag with each leg breaking down into a double zigzag. If the behavior from December and January repeats itself, after wave W of (Y) down we should see an X wave rally that tops about the same time as the stock market tops later in May and which bottoms along with the stock market in June. The downside targets for the SLV are 13.76 to 10.83.

I suspect that gold also topped today, but it could make another new high while silver makes a lower high. Oil is working on wave c of a flat correction that should take it down to 78 to 80 before it begins its final runup to a top later this summer.

Stocks are probably in wave [iv] of C. We may see a brief pop up tomorrow or sideways movement with another leg down into Friday's employment report. Wave C down could be severe with downside targets for the Qs in the range of 47.49 to 46.64. This should mark the bottom of the current pullback which should lead to a retest or at least an attempt at recent highs.

If the current move down completes as 5 waves, which would probably take us into next week, then we will not see a complete retest of the highs before the expected low in June. Only time will tell in that regard, but a sharp reversal day would be a sign to consider short term long entries into the May top.

That said, I will be expecting IBD to call the "Market In Correction" in tomorrow's edition. If not, I would be surprised after the string of distribution days that has piled up. Those that follow IBD for intermediate term signals should wait for a 1% continuation move to confirm intermediate short entries, but be prepared for a whipsaw. The MACD is already on a sell for stocks.