Thursday, May 20, 2010

It's Not As Bad As It Seems IMO

The above is the bullish wave count for the correction that began April 26. As long as the May 6 low is not violated, I believe the above count is the best interpretation of market behavior over the last 10 days. It appears that the Qs are in a 5th wave in wave (c) of [ii] down which should bottom tomorrow morning around 43.58 to 44.17. Note the positive divergences that have developed in RSI and MACD on the 15 minute time frame.

Both the traditional and ratio adjusted NYSE McClellan Oscillators made 3 year lows today. I am sure that many are interpreting this as a shock which is indicating the initiation of a new bear market downtrend. I have heard this interpertation many times, but do not recall an instance where it actually ended up being correct. What we can say is that at the moment the market is more oversold than it was after the October 2008 crash. To me that is saying a lot.

I am of the opinion that barring a breakaway gap down, that a barn burner rally is imminent. It probably won't happen tomorrow with options expiration, but we should see something by Monday or there may be problems with the bullish interpretation.

The SP500 on the other hand is much closer to violating its May 6 low, and this would also be problematic for the bull case.

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