Thursday, March 11, 2010

Where She Stops Nobody Knows

Markets broke out from a small degree triangle late this afternoon as they continue to wedge higher. The Dow seems to be the laggard as other markets are at or about to make new rally highs. At this point it is beginning to seem as though a resumption of the correction in wave (C) is becoming less likely. Even a pullback seems like it may not happen, but usually that's when they do happen. However, I could see the Qs going all the way to 48.37 without invalidating the wave (B) view. At that point we would be looking at an expanded flat correction or a running triangle. The less likely but possible interpretation is that we are in wave 1 or (1) of [C] of x.
Even so, we should see a wave 2 or (2) pullback soon.

The light volume continues to contradict the breakout, and the McClellan Oscillator continued its divergence against the market advance today, so I will remain in the camp that wave (C) is imminent until I see a 4th and 5th wave in the current rally followed by a 3 wave pullback.

Mid-term election years are typically volatile and I suspect we will see that effect upon us soon. Nevertheless my bias overall has been and remains to the long side with various long and intermediate term long positions in various stocks and oil with attempts at shorting which have year to date been a waste of time except for a couple of notable exceptions. I may take a stab at a couple of short term short positions if wave (C) gets going, but after that I will be looking long only until wave [C] matures.

No comments: