Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Update On The Qs

The Qs are near to completing wave 1 or A down from the wave (B) high. They remain above support at 44.97 for the moment, but that should be broken tomorrow. At the same time the trendline for the rally from 2/5 has been broken which is perhaps more important. As long the 4th and 5th waves complete tomorrow, we can be sure that the downtrend has resumed.

One alternate that should be mentioned is that the current wave could be wave [a] of A of a still unfolding wave (B) triangle. If this is the case, then markets will trade in a range for some time and perhaps well into March as I mentioned this morning. We will just have to wait and see how it unfolds over the next few days. I do expect that we will see a multi-day wave 2 rally after this thrust down completes. This should do to convince most traders that today's sell-off was just a shakeout in a renewed uptrend.

The most convincing aspect of today's selling was that just about everything was being sold - stocks and commodities. As long as the wave (B) high is not violated, the trend should be presumed down.

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