Friday, February 12, 2010

Rally Hanging By A Thread

The one undeniable thing about the market action this week is that it does not look impulsive - it does not look like the beginning of a new upleg in the larger rally. But - it is still possible that we will see a slight new high next Tuesday. After that it should be down to a new correction low.

The one fly in the ointment for an immediate move down in wave (C) is that next week is options expiration week, and oftentimes there is an upward bias during options expiration week, but not always.

The MACD is trying to hook down for a negative divergence sell signal on the 30 minute chart which is another clue that the countertrend move is coming to an end.

The pattern this week in oil looks more impulsive but it's hard to read. I would like to see it hold the 2/5 low of 69.50, but at least 68.59 to maintain the longterm uptrend. Any advance toward 78 next week would almost insure that the trend is turning back up, and when it does, watch out because we are likely to see a rapid advance toward 100 followed by 122 if 100 is broken. Of course that is all dependent on those levels holding firm.

Gold is also trying to turn back up. I would expect the commodities to move in tandem. It looks like the dollar is putting in a near top that could support the trend in commodities. The dollar has support at 78 and its 200dema, but if those levels are broken it would add even more fuel to the fire for gold and oil.

In summary, I am looking for the stock market correction to resume in force sometime next week, but I don't expect the correction to last past the end of February. There are a number of cyclical forces that should be coming to the aid of stocks by that point. These same forces will be probably also be supportive of gold and oil. Also, I am not expecting the Qs to move much if any below 40 or the SP500 to move below 1010 to 1020. Thereafter, the bear market rally should return in earnest. However, if these levels are broken then a much weaker wave c rally will be the result.

My current targets for wave c of the bear market rally are 55 to 60 for the Qs, 1320 to 1370 for the SP500 and 11600 to 12500 for the Dow. These are very approximate and depend on the depth of the current correction.

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