Saturday, February 20, 2010

A Different Look At Oil

In case you are doubting that the trend in oil is still up after the rally this week, I thought I would show you a different way to look at the trend. The above chart shows oil with Darvis boxes drawn. Darvis wrote the well known book, "How I Made $2,000,000 In The Stock Market." His description of his box method was rather cryptic to me until I saw it explained by another trader. A box is formed by swing highs and lows. A swing high is defined by a high followed by 3 lower highs, and a low is defined as a low followed by 3 higher lows. Sometimes a market just trends and no box is formed.

The idea is to trade in the direction of the breakout from a box. However, I think it is prudent in general to let another box form to confirm a change in the trend. After the 2008 high, a lower box did not form on the weekly time time, but you could have drilled down to the daily time frame to look for an entry.

Currently, a new box is forming that continues the uptrend. Even if a new lower box forms, I would not exit the trade unless the low of the second previous lower box is broken or the low of the new lower box is broken. From this point it would take at least 4 more weeks for a new lower box to form.

I may get stopped out next week, but for now I will sit on my hands in this trade while the trend continues to develop. If oil makes a new high, I expect the uptrend will accelerate as the action has been essentially sideways for 4 months now building up alot of energy for the next move.

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