I've updated the chart from earlier today. I believe that we are currently in wave b of [y] of 2 of (5). I suspect that we will see some continuation of this afternoon's rally tomorrow, and then a retest of today's low on Friday. Given the impulsiveness of today's decline, many traders will probably view a break of today's low as a sell/sell short signal. However, I think this will be one more bear trap to add to all the others since this rally began, and it will be the fuel to drive wave (5) to its completion. There also seems to be a possible positive divergence developing in the MACD on the hourly chart.
Surprisingly I was not stopped out of any short term long positions today even though a few of them have fairly tight stops. I view this as supportive of the above interpretation, but we will know the answer very soon. Time has run out on any more wiggles other than what I've shown.
Gold and silver sold off hard today and may be headed to new lows for the correction. The interesting thing about the current correction in the metals is that it doesn't seem to have the impulsiveness that one might expect from wave C of a flat correction that has been proposed by some analysts. It has the look and feel of a simple ABC correction. If so, new highs will be seen later this spring.
I continue to stay long oil even though it is having trouble breaking out in earnest. Barring a break of the December low, I think oil is coiling up for a substantial runup this spring and summer.
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