The Qs bottomed yesterday at 45.53, which is exactly the 0.618 extension of the 5 day opening range of January, 45.92 to 46.55, or 45.92 - 0.618*(46.55-45.92) = 45.53. The rally today put the Qs back in the upper half of the range and that points to higher prices near term. We can expect a target somewhere between 46.94 and 47.57 as a minimum projection for the current rally extending the range to the upside. If we use an extension of wave 1 of (5), the target is 49.64, which is definitely at the upper end of what might be possible for January.
In any case, January 20 +/- 2 days has been a common turning point looking back over the last decade. I believe it is quite likely that whatever high is seen in January will be seen next week, and traders should begin to prepare for that event. We will have to judge what to expect after that on the form of the decline from that high.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
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