Thursday, January 7, 2010

A Look At CSCO


CSCO has broken out above a triangle trendline. This large cap stock which is in both the Dow and the Nasdaq 100 supports the notion that the rally has longer to run. A typical expectation for the length of a 5th wave after a 4th wave breakout is that it will last about 1/3 the length of the triangle. In this case, we have a target in time of 17 trading days which began January 4, 2010. So the target date for the end of wave 5 is January 27. The target price is between 26.20 and 27.20 based on the width of the triangle. This seems somewhat conservative to me, but the 0.618 RT of the bear decline in CSCO is around 26.40, so these are probably pretty close. I plan to go long on a breakout above the high of the handle and exit in the target zone even if it is hit well before the target date. I suspect that when CSCO hits this target zone, the Qs may be at or near the end of its 5th wave.

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