Saturday, January 16, 2010


I have labelled the above hourly chart of the Qs to show the levels discussed in the prior post. Level A is weak support at 45.53, which is the January low, level B is strong support at the December high of 44.73, and level C is critical support at the wave E of (4) low of 43.76. There is also trendine support from the November 2 low which held the Qs on Friday.

I have noted the negative MACD divergence on the hourly chart because, the Qs did not breakdown out of the sell signal at the end of December, but, in fact, went sideways. This suggests that the impact of the negative divergence has been worked off by the sideways pattern since the sell signal.

The broadening formation is still in force and could go either way, but the main take away is that as long as support at the December high holds, we would be hard pressed to conclude that a correction was underway. A breach of the January low would tell us to stand aside on new longs, but a move below 43.76 or a clear 5 wave impulse down from the high would tell us to lean to the short side.

A top is coming, so there is nothing wrong with slowly building some short positions in individual stocks that are breaking down. The semis look like a good place to start after the recent big runup, and the financials are also promising after lagging for so long. Just look for clear setups and don't short something just because it looks overbought.

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