Thursday, January 21, 2010

Have The Wheels Come Off This Rally?

While the pattern in the Qs is still holding up, a number of high profile leading stocks fell sharply today. In addition, a lot of the bank stocks fell hard. JPM was down almost 3 points, -6.6% today along with GS. This is not a good sign. On the other hand the McClellan Oscillator fell to -179.10 which is rapidly approaching an oversold condition. Readings under -200 preceded the rallies off the October and November lows.

I think the action yesterday and today is a wake-up call for the bulls and gives the bears a taste of what the impending correction will look like once it gets going in earnest. While I have yet to conclude that the top (of A) is in, the failure of leading stocks will set up a negative divergence in breadth indicators on the next push to a top. If the Qs fail at the December highs, then I will be looking for a 5 wave decline or a fractal sell pivot for a short entry.

So far I have only been stopped out of one short term long position. I would not be surprised to see more selling tomorrow to cap out the week. If the bulls are going to regain control, they must do so early next week.

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