While the pattern in the Qs is still holding up, a number of high profile leading stocks fell sharply today. In addition, a lot of the bank stocks fell hard. JPM was down almost 3 points, -6.6% today along with GS. This is not a good sign. On the other hand the McClellan Oscillator fell to -179.10 which is rapidly approaching an oversold condition. Readings under -200 preceded the rallies off the October and November lows.
I think the action yesterday and today is a wake-up call for the bulls and gives the bears a taste of what the impending correction will look like once it gets going in earnest. While I have yet to conclude that the top (of A) is in, the failure of leading stocks will set up a negative divergence in breadth indicators on the next push to a top. If the Qs fail at the December highs, then I will be looking for a 5 wave decline or a fractal sell pivot for a short entry.
So far I have only been stopped out of one short term long position. I would not be surprised to see more selling tomorrow to cap out the week. If the bulls are going to regain control, they must do so early next week.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
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