Friday, December 18, 2009

The Party Just Keeps On Going

Trying to figure out what this market is going to do can make you crazy. Today's action in the Qs looks very much like an upward double zigzag that could resolve to the downside, but the extent of the rally means that selling must resume fairly quickly Monday. The problem with that is the Wilshire and the Dow look like they have another upmove to go before completing their respective upward corrections, which means there is a strong likelihood the Qs will make a new rally high on Monday. This doesn't destroy the bearish case as the Qs often are the last to top, but it certainly puts a kink in it.

All that said, unless and until we see multiple indexes closing at new rally highs on higher volume we should assume that a correction will occur. I wouldn't put too much "stock" in next week's action as I suspect few professionals will be trading, but the week after Christmas should be telling.

Have good weekend and enjoy the snow if you can.

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