Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Wave 2 Or (B) Up
Markets have broken out above the high of the low day of the correction and above the upper channel line on a higher volume rate than the day before giving strong support to the view that an upward correction of wave 1 or (A) down is now underway. Since wave 1 or (A) down was an impulsive move, the October 21 high should not be exceeded or something different is going on. The most likely target for wave 2 or (B) is the 62% retracement of wave 1 or (A), which puts the SP500 at 1074+/-. However, anything less than the October 21 high is possible. This countertrend move will likely be choppy and could last for several days. Any follow-through day on this move should be regarded with suspicion as it is extremely rare that a correction not complete at least a 3 wave movement.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
5 comments:
Despite "breaking out above the high of the low day of the correction and above the upper channel line on a higher volume rate than the day before..." we could still be in c of 4 of wave 1 or (A) down.
IF we close > 10d, i'd then change my mind.
Craig,
Maybe i was unaware of it (probably was), but in the past i don't remember the mkt constantly being either/or so often.
Where we are today, i see as a medium risk to be short & high risk to be short.
Faux pas.
Meant "Where we are today, i see as a medium risk to be short & high risk to be LONG."
I wouldn't say it's not possible that today was [4] up, but one thing I haven't mentioned recently is that 11/3 was a significant turn date, which means we often see a rally that will last as long as the decline, in this case 8 days.
Even so, I will be shorting at the rally target. It just means that there might be a little drawdown if it extends higher.
after hours CSCO will help the rally case
Post a Comment