Friday, November 6, 2009

One More Thrust Higher To Complete Wave (B)

Well, as it turns out the impulsive move down from today's high around 10am was wave c of a flat correction, which itself is part of a running triangle. This means that there is at least one more thrust higher to complete the countertrend rally. I will remain short the indexes barring a move up on substantially higher volume. Unlike the fairly clear and distinct impulse waves during the decline from the October 21 high, the rally from the 11/2 low has the character of an upward correction with choppy overlapping waves. Even if the October 21 high is approached or exceeded, it is likely that a retest of the 11/2 low is in the cards.

Also, from another perspective supporting that the correction is still underway, IBD did not call Wednesday's action a follow-through day as the volume was lower than Tuesday on all of the indexes. My charting service showed higher volume for the Nasdaq, so I don't know where the discrepancy is. In any case, it looks like the markets have more work to do before the uptrend resumes.

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