Thursday, October 15, 2009

One View Of Oil


My view on oil is that it just completed a (B) wave and we are now in wave (C) up. The measured move target is 108.85. A sharp wave 2 pullback or sideways consolidation is due very soon, so some drawdown will have be tolerated, but as long as the 10/5 low of 68.32 remains intact, the trend should be up. Also, be aware that 5th waves and C waves in commodities often extend, so oil could move well above the target. I wonder if this may be the catalyst that gets the correction going in the stock indexes even as the dollar continues its downward slide?

6 comments:

dave said...

"I wonder if this may be the catalyst that gets the correction going in the stock indexes even as the dollar continues its downward slide?"

How will the conventional wisdom ever handle that ? :)

crude rally = stk mkt rally
dollar down = stk mkt rally

Therefore,
stk mkt rally = stk mkt rally

Btw, crude rallying while gold declines - haha. GLD has looked like it was approaching a 5th of 5th from the July lows for days (it may have one more tiny high first).

dave said...

This is an amazing sight to see the $VIX at its absolute lowest point since March even when the DJI was still down 65pts.

Craig, your thoughts ?

dave said...

unless stk mkt makes a negligible NH Mon/Tues think there may not be that much downside followthru because Thurs highs were confirmed.

Energy may lead mkt to NH's M or Tu with poor A/D.

SMH in the downside lead. It had a Hanging Man Weds & confirmed on the downside yesterday.

R. Craig Pritchard said...

Yes, and when did conventional wisdom ever make money for investors?

R. Craig Pritchard said...

Low VIX = High Complacency

R. Craig Pritchard said...

Notice that the SOX made a higher low in March (also a clue at that time that the broader markets were bottoming) and it appears to have completed 5 waves up from the November low, though not textbook.

Would not be surprised at all to see a 50% to 62% retracement of that move.