I may have forgotten to mention that there was a negative divergence MACD sell signal for the Qs as of Friday 9/25/09. While I suspect that this may prove to be a false signal, for those using the MACD, it is a valid signal. The long trade has yielded a return of 13.50%. The MACD system as I have described it based on Gerald Appel's work is up 31.19% YTD, in second place behind IBD's market calls. In addition, being a negative divergence sell signal, it is also a potential signal to sell short. I am not advocating taking it as a short signal, but should the Qs fail to make a new high and form a sell pivot, it would be a good setup to consider.
According to a couple of websites, the median hedge fund return YTD is 9.95%. While this doesn't tell us anything about the best performing funds, it makes it clear that mastering the MACD would be a valuable skill for every trader to have in their arsenal.
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"...a negative divergence MACD sell signal for the Qs..."
Yes, but as you hint at, the trickier question after sell or buy signals is "How much of a follow-thru ?".
For this we have turn to other things such as http://www.promopeddler.com/00-80/ball-design-executive-decision-maker-qqp122191.htm
"Potential" problem to keep an eye on that will give us a head start on 2nd half of Oct:
IBM may be having a false breakout of two month trading range.
another morning star reversal like Sept 2nd ?
Q's pulled back as the day went along whereas SPX/SPY traded level/flat.
In the morning, Q's led SPY %-wise comfortably, by the end of the day SPY finished up more %-wise.
Yes, I need an 8 ball decision maker some days.
When i was a local, a friend was having such a bad stretch that he said "I'm thinking about fading myself. ... pause ... Do you think that's being too cynical ?"
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