Constructive Day, But Not Much New

Until we break out above the August highs, there is not much to add to previous comments. However, today's action was very constructive as many leading stocks advanced strongly. In typical Murphy's Law fashion, all three of the laggard stocks that I sold yesterday gained more than 6% today. This may not be such a good sign, though. Oftentimes some of the laggards will pop as the market nears a top. I continue to expect volatile action over the next two weeks, but will remain bullish as long as the August lows hold.

Dave has posted some interesting comments on gold (see the September 4 post). The sentiment picture on gold is difficult to read as different surveys offer differing views. However, overall I think the sentiment picture is leaning toward the skeptical side. From a seasonal viewpoint, we can expect a strong rally in September to early October followed by a pullback into November and then another rally that could last into January or February. This picture fits nicely with the potential for a stock market top in October with stocks going down into January as gold tops out. I am looking to add to my DGP position tomorrow.