Monday, August 3, 2009

SP500 Hits Round Number Resistance At 1000

Today we saw the advance continue and the SP500 joined the round number crowd by closing above the 1000 level. However, volume was average to below average on most indexes. I am still looking for a pullback into August 14, but the closer we get to that date without one, the less the decline is likely to be.

The action today is why I said I would not be selling out of individual stock positions even though I sold two index positions. I want to maintain exposure in case I am wrong about the pullback. It is always possible that this thing could keep going and going as the expected 5th wave becomes like the proverbial carrot on a stick.

I was stopped out of the DTO today, but did you notice how gold failed to move even though the Dollar made a new closing low for its decline? Gold may have one more push before it rolls over, but then again, the rally may have ended today. I am not convinced the bullish case for Oil that I presented in an earlier post is the correct one, and I am not going to go long Oil via the DXO without some consolidation.

The financials are performing well and I remain long the UYG. JPM made a rally closing high today. It is now above its long term median line and has solid support. My target is 50.63 or higher.

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