Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Distribution Day

We finally had another distribution day today, but the financials continued to advance. With AIG up a whopping 62.72% today and JP Morgan up almost 4%, it may be that the financials will allow the broader markets to consolidate in a sideways fashion over the next 2 to 3 weeks rather than pullback sharply. Note that RDN and ABK appear to moving in sympathy with AIG, but the pattern in ABK does not appear to be as impulsive, so caution is advised.

One standout this week has been UAL Corp, UAUA, which has broken out sharply from a 5th wave ending diagonal bottom in June with a target of 16.73 over the next 6 to 8 weeks.

The Qs have yet to fall under the 7/31 low of 39.41, but I expect they will in the coming days. Even so, it seems that a sharp correction is becoming less likely with each passing day, particularly as long as the 39.00 level holds. A close below 38.97 on the other hand will probably lead to a move to a least 37.93, but such projections are premature at the moment.

I will be looking to re-enter index long positions once I see a clearly completed correction coupled with an oversold 5 period RSI and/or STOCH at a fib support level.

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