Tuesday, July 21, 2009

"Uncle" They Said

We are now at a unique juncture. The SP500 hit its June high today and closed just below it, and afterhours, stocks such as SBUX and AAPL are moving higher with the Qs approaching 39.00. There are most likely a large number of stops on short positions sitting just above today's high and the 956 level will either reject the market once again or we may see an explosive short covering move higher.

We can count 5 waves up from the July low, but this is the weakest area of usefulness with Elliott wave theory. Look back over the last 10 years at all of the rallies that lasted at least 3 months and you will see that you can count five waves up at the beginning of each of them, and for several, the market just kept going and going and going with no real pullback. We may be at one of those points now.

Even looking at the March 9 to May 6 rally in the Qs, they only pulled back to the 12ema+/- until the top. If we move and close above 956 tomorrow in the SP500, I will be looking to add to index positions on pullbacks to the 12ema, because it is beginning to appear that is all the market is going to give us.

2 comments:

dave said...

"...but this is the weakest area of usefulness with Elliott wave theory. Look back over the last 10 years at all of the rallies that lasted at least 3 months and you will see that you can count five waves up at the beginning of each of them, and for several, the market just kept going and going and going with no real pullback." Pure eloquence :)

Re: Extensions in wave counts - R. N. Elliott was Emily Litella before there was Emily Litella

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Never_mind_(Saturday_Night_Live)

http://www.hulu.com/watch/2364/saturday-night-live-weekend-update-emily-litella-on-violins-on-tv

Regards,
dave

R. Craig Pritchard said...

Interesting and funny take on it.