Thursday, July 23, 2009

The Qs Hit Trendline Resistance

The NYSE closed above the resistance shown in yesterday's post, and today the Qs closed right on trendline resistance. The above trendline is parallel to the median line which also passes through the May and June highs. A lower parallel trendline approximately equidistant from the median line passes through the July low.

Their appears to be 3 different possible support levels: the median line, the June high, and the lower trendline. Based on the current cycles it looks like a possible date for a bottom would be around 8/13 to 8/14 assuming a correction actually occurs. So far, anyone looking for a pullback has been denied, but it appears we may now have a catalyst as AMZN, JNPR and MSFT are getting hammered afterhours.

The best case scenario in my opinion is a shallow correction that lasts one to two weeks. However, the timing would seem to indicate a 3 week correction.

I will not be selling this correction, but continuing to manage positions and looking to add at support levels.

4 comments:

dave said...

Isn't it interesting that AMZN's surprise bad earnings came in a 5th wave of a 5th wave (began July 7th) ??

If you scream "FIRE" in an empty theatre, you can crawl out on your stomach & survive. If you whisper "fire" in a crowded theatre, you will get trampled.

Regards,
dave

dave said...

It will be pretty difficult to avoid having an island top in AMZN tomorrow.

Am surprised at the bad earnings miss in MSFT. I would have thought that they would be pretty conservative. IMO, another black mark during Steve Balmer's reign, Gates' college buddy.

Regards,
dave

R. Craig Pritchard said...

Excellent wave analysis on AMZN. I debated trading the 5th wave, but on second thought decided against it. I generally avoid them because they so often disappoint.

I think this just completes wave A of a still ongoing upward correction in AMZN, so there will be another chance.

I also think it is amazing that these "bad" reports came out just as all of these markets hit their respective resistance levels. The Dow just tagged the Jan and 2009 high today. Amazing!

dave said...

Craig, ya know what would be a hoot ? To see the block AMZN trades done today & see the counterparty names.

Regards,
dave