Friday, July 17, 2009

A Note On Some Important Numbers

Over the last few weeks I have noted that the Qs have been respecting the level 35.50, which could seen by how the highs or lows of important days were exactly at or close to 35.50 as the Qs ranged above and below.

I calculated the annual pivots for the Qs for 2008, and guess what, 35.42 is the central pivot. A little off, but close enough for me. Now that the Qs are back above that level decisively, it looks like clear sailing for a while. From this point forward all pullbacks should respect that level or the rally could be in jeopardy.

The current quarterly pivot for the Qs is 34.47. The July low is 34.30 so far. Q-R1 = 39.14 and Q-R2 = 41.91, so there is room to the upside. At the same time, the current M-R1 = 37.48, which is where we are now, so a pullback to the M-P = 36.13 would seem the likely next move.

Correction from prior post: 37.57 is the 1.618 extension of the January range, which was exactly today's high. So again, there is some resistance in this area.

On the other hand, 35.30 is the 1.0 extension of the January range, which provides additional support together with the annual pivot.

To summarize, there is definite support from 35.30 to 36.13 in the Qs while there is also resistance at the current level. A pullback to the support zone is likely, but should be a great place to add to or initiate new positions.

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